History is accelerating, and as is often the case, it is being written without Europe. At the start of 2026, the international order that Brussels strove to preserve—the famous "rules-based order"—has just shattered under the relentless blows of a defiant Trump administration. Between the military intervention "Absolute Resolve" in Venezuela and threats to annex Greenland, Washington’s message is brutally clear: might makes right, and yesterday’s ally is now treated as a private hunting ground.

Venezuela or the Triumph of the "Law of the Jungle"

The forced extraction of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd was not an international police operation; it was an act of state piracy. By flouting the sovereign immunity of a sitting head of state, however contested his power may be, Washington is not just attacking an authoritarian regime; it is dynamiting the foundations of the UN Charter. The boarding of Russian-flagged vessels in the zone shows that the United States no longer cares about the risks of escalation with other nuclear powers.

For Europe, the snub is total. While Paris and Madrid attempted to build a fragile mediation for a democratic transition, Donald Trump’s "Big Stick" has reduced these diplomatic efforts to insignificance. Worse, the displayed weakness of Europeans further discredits Europe on Ukraine, with Paris leading the way by claiming that "The method used is neither supported nor approved" (but with what consequences and what concrete actions?). How can one condemn Moscow in the name of international law while remaining a silent spectator to American aggression in Caracas?

Furthermore, what response should be given to Beijing, which has begun replicating the infrastructures of the Taiwanese presidential headquarters? These training sites suggest the preparation of a commando operation by the Chinese army, at the very moment Xi Jinping reiterates his ambition to complete national reunification.

Greenland: The End of the Atlanticist Illusion

If Venezuela is the laboratory for this neo-imperialism, Greenland is its internal front. By reactivating the Monroe Doctrine (rechristened the "Donroe Doctrine") as far as the Arctic, Donald Trump is no longer just attacking "adversaries," but the territorial integrity of a NATO member. Mette Frederiksen’s alarm cry, "the end of everything," echoes in a void like the epitaph of an Atlantic alliance that has become unilateral.

Europe discovers its strategic nakedness. Dependent on the American nuclear and technological umbrella, it is incapable of offering Denmark a credible security alternative in the absence of a unified continental army. The paralysis of Brussels institutions, which postpones the revision of their Arctic strategy until late 2026, borders on the absurd in the face of urgent annexation threats. Washington plays on this weakness, going so far as to encourage independence movements in Nuuk to better detach the island from Copenhagen’s tutelage.

A Union Divided by Its Own Contradictions

This external impotence reflects a deep internal decohesion. At the very moment when the Union should stand united, it is tearing itself apart over the ruins of the Mercosur treaty. The schism between an exporting Germany, ready to do anything to secure markets, and a France entrenched in the defense of its farmers, paralyzes any impulse for a common response. This "internal trade war" is a godsend for Washington. An Europe unable to agree on beef will never agree on strategic military autonomy or a diplomatic response to the dismantling of Denmark.

Strategic Foresight: Autonomy or Vassalization The time for press releases deploring the EU's "concern" is over. The choice is now binary: either Europe undertakes a brutal federal leap, massive defense budget, unified diplomacy, and an end to American technological dependence, or it accepts its fate as a fragmented protectorate.

The risk is real that European states, one by one, will negotiate their survival directly with Washington, definitively burying the project of a sovereign Europe. If the EU fails to transform this electric shock into an engine for integration, it will soon be nothing more than a geographical memory, squeezed between predatory American imperialism and its own renunciations.